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267%, and 5/15 333%) The weights always total 100 percent, as long as there are no mistakes We multiply the economic profit margins in row 24 by the weights in row 26 to calculate the SYD weighted profit margin in row 27, which adds to 66 percent (G27) Thus, the weighted average profit margin is slightly lower than the simple average profit margin for the past five years Now, which one should we use In the absence of more specific information (the type I mentioned above, that can come from detailed, line-by-line expense analysis), I think the trend is clear that the weighted average of 66 percent is a better forecast of the future than the simple average in this example It is possible to calculate other averages We could, for example, calculate an average excluding 1998, which is 63 percent (it does not appear in Table 32) That appears too low to me, so I wouldn t use it Also, we could average 2000 through 2002, which is 67 percent, also not shown in the table That appears too high to me When there is a clear long-term upward or downward trend, it makes a lot of sense to use the economic profit margin of the last year unless you expect the trend to continue, in which case you may want to use a more extreme amount For example, if the economic profit margins were instead percentages of 9, 85, 8, 75, 7, and 65 for 1998-2002, respectively, then the likely candidate for your forecast in the valuation is 65 percent However, suppose you expect the trend to continue downward and stop at 5 percent after three years Then you would want to forecast 6 percent for 2003, 55 percent for 2004, and 5 percent for 2003 and beyond If you prefer to use one long-term growth rate, I would suggest something like 53 percent, because it s a little higher than 5 percent but not by much In Table 32 we do not have a completely clear trend I would use the weighted average of 66 percent (G27) or perhaps the 2002 margin of 65 percent (F24) for forecasting As you can see, this is detailed work, but it is not rocket science Let s select the 66 percent Forecasting economic net income is probably the greatest source of valuation error especially for amateurs Think ahead to what may change in the future before you settle on your fore-.

Figure 9-5

#import <Foundation/Foundation.h> int main (int argc, const char * argv[]) { const char *words[4] = { "aardvark", "abacus", "allude", "zygote" }; int wordCount = 4; int i; for (i = 0; i < wordCount; i++) { NSLog (@"%s is %d characters long", words[i], strlen(words[i])); } return (0); } // main

9:

The for loop determines which word in the words array is being processed at any time. The NSLog() function inside the loop prints out the word using the %s format specifier. We use %s, because words is an array of C strings rather than of @"NSString" objects. The %d format specifier takes the integer value of the strlen() function, which calculates the length of the string, and prints it out along with the word itself. When you run Word-Length-1, you see informative output like this:

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cast This is the area where an amateur and occasionally even a professional may err by missing something very important Perhaps you ll forget that you will exceed your office space in two years, which will cost considerably more going forward, or perhaps you won t foresee that new competition will squeeze your margins more, starting next year When there s a lot of money at stake in a transaction, at a minimum you should get a professional to review your valuation Even so, you must tell the professional valuator the trends that you see, since you know more about your business than he or she does, and your expertise is very important to the valuation process

Figure 9-6

aardvark is abacus is 6 allude is 6 zygote is 6 8 characters long characters long characters long characters long

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